Sabato says Republicans would be best served by a candidate who does not remind voters of Bush (McCain or Guiliani) while Democrats truly have a choice to make. He says:
The interesting, unpredictable part is the Democratic reaction to Bush's low numbers. Will their nemesis's distress lead them to become overconfident and think they can pick any candidate, believing victory in November is assured? If so, look for the Party to self-destruct by choosing a nominee who is personally unappealing or someone too far to the left to win any Red states. Advantage: Hillary Clinton, Russ Feingold. On the other hand, the enticing prospect of likely triumph may moderate the Democrats, to insure that their standard-bearer appeals to the mainstream and can win some elusive Red (or Purple) states. Advantage: Mark Warner, Evan Bayh.
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